JAGAN – THE NEW CENTRIFUGE

It is emerging rapidly that Jagan Mohan Reddy will be the next
centrifuge of any coalition that takes power at the centre. While the
Congress dithers on Telengana, suspends its own MPs and essentially
makes a hash of things, the Andhra pot continues to boil. Why will
Jagan be the new centrifuge , one may ask? Won’t the BJP as the
principal opposition party be the big brother in any new formation? Of
course it will be, but the math across the poll map of the country
provides insights into what maybe the final outcome in 2014. Yes, 2014
is a long way off, so why am I getting off the blocks so early.
Simple, a mini referendum is set to take place in the same Andhra
Pradesh on June 12 when 18 assembly segments and 1 Lok Sabha seat go
to the polls.

There is every possibility that Jagan, all fire and brimstone against
the Congress so far will side with the BJP in the next round. And once
he does that, then he becomes a very powerful player in whatever form
and shape the new combine takes. Nitish Kumar, Navin Patnaik,
Jayalalitha, who knows Mamta Banerjee and the wild card in the pack –
Jagan Mohan Reddy all aligning with the BJP will see a major
regrouping of forces. So, I am not getting ahead of the curve, but
looking at an emergent scenario. An emergent scenario which doesn’t
portend well for the ruling dispensation either in the state or the
Centre. Interestingly, AP state assembly elections took place in 2009,
so the state goes to the polls again in 2014, along with the general
hustings. In 2009, Y S Rajasekhara Reddy returned to power with 156
seats, a much reduced mandate from the stunning win in 2004 when he
garnered 185 out of the 294 assembly seats.

The four states which return the maximum number of MPs to the Lok
Sabha are Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. All
told they return 80 plus 50 plus 48 plus 42, making up a round figure
of 220 MPs. Both in the 2004 and 2009 general elections, Congress
used the rump provided by YSR in AP to come to power at the centre. In
2009, YSR brought in 33 MPs while in 2004, he returned 29 MPs. In
2009, the Congress bagged 206 seats, the highest number of MPs came
from AP, followed by UP 21, Rajasthan 20 and Maharashtra 17. Ditto in
2004 when the Congress came to power with 145 seats. Andhra and YSR
delivered in spades with 29, Maharashtra 13, Gujarat 12 and Tamil Nadu
10 were laggards in comparison. The point here is that Andhra Pradesh
has been the differentiator, in many ways the killer application that
has brought the Congress back to power and then help it retain power.

Unfortunately YSR’s untimely and at one level slightly mysterious
death muddied the waters for the Congress in AP. Habituated with
shooting itself in the foot, the Congress went and queered the pitch
for itself rapidly thereafter. When YSR’s son and heir Jagan Mohan was
projected as the claimant to the throne, the ‘high command’
neutralized him by electing a consensus candidate instead – K Rosaiah.
Since then the ruling party has hurtled from one crisis to another in
Andhra. A state that practically guaranteed success for the Congress
since the elevation of YSR as CM is now more or less a millstone
around its neck. Things have come to such a sorry pass that there are
no takers for the Congress candidature in Andhra for the by polls now.
Recent reports suggest that several Congress candidates have backed
out because public sentiment is so intense. Public sentiment is
intense not just for the creation of Telengana but increasingly for
the anointment of Jagan Reddy as the CM of the state. In this vacuum,
YSR Congress holds sway in Andhra politics now.

By keeping the issue of Telengana in suspended animation, the central
government has only created that many more complications for itself.
Soon after YSR’s death, Jagan declared his intent to take over the
mantle, but this was unacceptable to Delhi. In a public revolt against
K Rosaiah, Jagan made it clear that it was now or never. By November,
2010 Jagan walked out of the Congress. Impatience being his bugbear,
Jagan should have realized that a vulture is a patient bird. But the
impetuosity of youth and eagerness to grab power tripped him. Many
yatras later, including a fabled train journey to Delhi, he still
awaits what he believes is rightfully his. Politics at the end of the
day is about elections as Team Anna may have also realized to their
chargin. Electoral politics is also about playing the waiting game,
engaging with the hoi polloi and striking at the right time.

In May 2011, Jagan swept Kadapah, his family’s pocket borough by five
lakh votes, the other contestants lost their deposits. Significantly,
his mother Vijaylakshmi, equally cut up with the Congress, also won
the Pulivendula assembly seat by 85,000 votes. The banner of revolt
had been thrown flush in the face of the Congress in Delhi. As if all
this wasn’t enough, home minister P Chidambaram on the fateful night
of December 9, 2009 bunged in a big ugly monkey wrench in the mix by
announcing that the Indian government would start the process of
forming a separate Telangana state, pending the introduction and
passage of a separation resolution in the Andhra Pradesh assembly.
This resulted in protests across both Andhra and Rayalseema and MLAs
from these regions submitted their resignations in protest. Under
pressure, on December 23, the Government of India announced that no
action on Telangana will be taken until a consensus is reached by all
parties. Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema region MLAs started
withdrawing their resignations while MLAs and ministers from Telangana
started submitting their resignations, and demanded that the Centre
take immediate steps to initiate the process of bifurcating Andhra
Pradesh. Since then the drama of mass resignations has continued non
stop. Also it has brought pain, suffering and misery on the people of
the Telengana region in AP. Lives have been lost, dislocated and in
many cases virtually caught in a time warp.
Accentuating the pain and problems for Andhra was former home
secretary Gopal Pillai’s damaging announcement on December 11, 2009
where he said that Hyderabad will be Telengana’s capital. Already
under a fusillade of fire, he hastily retracted his statement soon
after. The best barometer for the future of Andhra/Telengana came in
March this year when K Chandrasekhara Rao’s Telengana Rashtriya Samiti
scored big winning four of the seven by polls. The Congress is loath
to bifurcating the state, the constituents that make up the state want
it. The Srikrishna Report has come and gone. Throw Jagan into the mix
and the numbers 33 and 29 LS MPs look more and more remote even as the
hustings loom large on the radar. A new strain of regional jingosim
has come to the fore just as it did many years ago when NTR grabbed
centrestage with the Telugu bidda pitch. Now take that strain and
split it into two – a man who reckons he has been wronged and cheated
– Jagan and the messiah of Telengana politics – KCR. The high tide
will lift and bring in all these boats. Don’t see too many Congressmen
on them though.